Structural Quagmire of US-Japan-Taiwan Trilateral Relations from the Perspective of Self Organizing Theory

　　Author：Zhang Shirong, PostDoctoral Fellow, Center for Science, Technology and Society, School of Humanities and Social Sciences, Tsinghua University

　　Abstract： With the gradual warming of crossStrait ties since 2008, the maneuverings of China, the United States and Japan with regards to the Taiwan issue have also shifted towards maintaining greater stability in the region. However, the US’ and Japan’s strategic thinking to use Taiwan to contain China will not easily change even with this shift. This article applies I Prigogine’s self-organizing argument of the chaos theory to analyze the historical formation of the US-Japan-Taiwan “alliance”. Even though “self-organized” in itself—in the sense that the current US-Japan-Taiwan relations yield to no external instructions to realize self-organization, self-creation and self-evolution—the fact remains that the structure of geostrategic security interests between the three parties are highly unbalanced. With the increasing importance of China in regional affairs, this “self-organized” structure will come under increasing pressures, as the interest framework that has held the “alliance” together breaks down further. On top of analyzing this structural quagmire faced by the US-Japan-Taiwan trilateral relations, this article also makes suggestions to manage the Taiwan issue within the framework of China-US-Japan relations.