Future Development

Abstract: East Asia and the Asia Pacific Region are characterized by a large number of complex and overlapping institutions.How to assess the effectiveness of these institutions, and how to use these to envision and plan the governance institutions of the future has become an important area for research.A scientific and rigorous assessment of the effectiveness of regional institutions functions to compare observable or predictable results applying scientific methods and standards.This article takes the following four criteria as a basis for making such an assessment: obtaining objectives, changing behavior, resolving problems and collective optimization.With this as a basis, it identifies the level of the issue, distribution of power, institutional capacity, behavioral tendencies, application of rules, and institutional drivers as second tier indicators, thereby developing a comprehensive set of indices for assessment.Through quantitative analysis, this is applied to determine whether East Asian governance institutions are effective.The results show that of East Asian institutions, ASEAN, 10+3 and RCEP are the most effective, while EAS, ARF and APEC are more limited in effectiveness.Other institutions (TPP, GMS and China-Japan-S.Korea Cooperation) have a moderate level of effectiveness.In the future, it will be difficult for the disparate institutions providing regional governance to be molded into a comprehensive governance mechanism, as various institutions will trend towards competition with one another as they develop.

Of the various institutions, TPP, RCEP and China-Japan-S.Korea Cooperation will be the most critical as they evolvAs such, we must positively consider China’s strategy direction and policy choices, and be objective in our consideration of the development of the East Asia region’s disparate governance institution. 

About the Author: Wang Mingguo is an Associate Professor in the Institute for International Strategy and Policy Analysis of the Law School of Shanghai University of International Business and Economics