Energy Security Expectations, Status Quo Preferences and the Energy Diplomacy Decision- Making of Great Powers

　　Abstract: This article takes a state’s expectations with respect to energy security and its status quo preferences as independent variables to interpret energy foreign policy behavior of great powers, and distinguishes between three types of energy diplomacy based on level of risk: offensive energy diplomacy (high risk), offense-defense energy diplomacy (medium risk), and defensive energy diplomacy (low risk). This article argues that: (1) If policymakers have low expectations for energy security, they will have a preference for avoiding further damage to national interests by selecting offensive energy diplomacy; (2) If policymakers have high expectations for energy security, a state’s preference will be for accruing benefits from the status quo, which policymakers will maintain by selecting defensive energy diplomacy; (3) When policymakers see their expectations for energy security downgraded from high to low, their preferences for the status quo will begin to shift, and in order to maintain the status quo and avoid losses, policymakers are more likely to select offensive-defensive energy diplomacy.