An Analysis of the East Asia Regional Order beneath the Crisis

　　Abstract: This article argues that the current context of “no major wars, but constant small scale chaos” in East Asia is a result of the failure of political institutions to form as the regional order evolves. Historically, East Asia shifted from being governed by the Celestial Empirical Order to an order based on treaties, to an order of “autonomy” during the Cold War. Based on a review of the historical evolution of the regional order, this article argues that a total of seven factors, including factors related to the U.S., China and Japan now influence the regional order in East Asia. This article proposes an “upside down pyramid” model to reflect overall relations between states in the region. American influence on the East Asia regional order is preeminent. China’s return is a prominent factor impacting the regional order, and it manifests itself in the overall growth of the region. The “normalization” of Japan is another major factor impacting the East Asian order, and it shows itself through Japan’s inherent “duality”. Because of their importance and instability, the Korean Peninsula, Taiwan, and Southeast Asia have become key fissures in the East Asia regional order. Of the dynamics between American, Chinese and Japanese influences, U.S.-China relations are the core axis of the East Asian regional order. For its part, how China uses its continuously growing power is particularly important.