Cyclical Theories of US Foreign Policy：Perspectives, Critiques and Empirical Tests

    Abstract： There are two general perspectives on the evolution of U.S. foreign policy since the founding of the United States.The first argues that U.S. foreign policy has evolved through a series of phases; the second argues that it has swung back and forth through different cycles like a pendulum with a certain degree of regularity.Since the 1950s, American scholars have started to research cyclical patterns in the evolution of U.S.foreign policy, and several theories have emerged, including：Frank Klingburg’s theory of alternative moods of foreign policy which is characterized by a shift between “extroversion” and “introversion;” Michael Roskin’s theory of shifting paradigms which views U.S. foreign policy as shifting from “interventionism” to “non-interventionism,” and Jack Holmes’ mood/interest theory of foreign policy. While cyclical theories of American foreign policy have much scholarly value, they also suffer from inadequacies that are difficult to overcome. Research on these theories can prove helpful for understanding patterns in the evolution of U.S. foreign policy, identifying the present cycle within which U.S. foreign policy falls and understanding how these cycles might impact U.S. policy towards China. 