South China Sea Policy of the Philippines: Interest Driven Policy Choice

    Abstract: The interests driving the policy of the Philippines towards the South China Sea are represented in two ways: first, on the basis of economic and security interests, the Philippines claims both sovereignty and administrative authority over some islands and waters in the South China Sea despite lacking legal basis for such claims; second is that interests have long been the main factor influencing the South China Sea policy of the Philippines. Precisely because its policy is clearly driven by interests, given the current favorable international environment, under the influence of interest groups representing the military and energy companies, the Philippines has trended towards aggressive policy actions in the South China Sea. These actions have caused the deterioration of relations between China and the Philippines, have deepened conflict between China and ASEAN on the issue of the South China Sea, and in general terms have led to an increasingly unfavorable environment for China visàvis its neighbors. The aggressive nature of the Philippines policy has challenged China’s redline with respect to protection of its rights in the South China Sea and is testing the wisdom of China’s strategy towards its neighboring countries. China’s strategic response needs not only look carefully at the current situation in the South China Sea, but China must also take a long term view and make clearer policy assessments.