Theories of Alliance Formation: A Review and Considerations for Chinese Policy

    Abstract: This article offers a comprehensive review and analysis of theories of alliance formation, arguing that over the past several decades two major theoretical developments have been advanced: first, research on “why alliances form” has progressed from balance of power theories to balance of threat theories to balance of interest theories; second, is that there has been much theoretical innovation within each of the above categories of theories. According Lakatos’ standards for assessing theoretical development and the principle of Occam’s razor, this article reviews each of these theories and argues that the theoretical progression from balance of power to balance of threats theories has been relatively successful. The article goes on to apply the theory of alliance building and its historical development to construct a simple theory of the collapse of alliances. Finally the article considers implications of the theory of alliance formation for contemporary Chinese foreign policy.