Do Alliances between Democratic States Last Longer? Analysis based on Data of Military Alliances from 1815 to 1989

　　Abstract:In recent years, Western scholars working on the duration of alliances have developed the “democratic alliance durability theory”, which argues that alliances formed between democratic states last longer than other types of alliances (alliances between non-democratic states or alliances formed between democratic and nondemocratic states).This conclusion is based primarily on the observation that common democratic values, culture and democratic institutions have the power to bind states. Western scholars universally rely on this empirical finding to demonstrate the “dependability of democratic alliances”. However, looking carefully at examples of democratic alliances and considering the limitations of this theory, it is argued that there is not much difference between the ways that democratic and non-democratic states implement alliances when it comes to the domestic costs of breaking an alliance agreement. Based on this observation, two converse hypotheses are explored to test the democratic alliance durability theory: (1) that alliances formed by non-democratic states are more durable; and (2) that alliances between democratic and non-democratic states are more durable. In testing these hypotheses, the article uses a dataset of cases of bilateral military alliances from 1815 to 1989 and applies a Cox proportional hazard model. Controlling for power relations between members of an alliance, cultural background, international structure, level of institutionalization of an alliance, the purpose of an alliance, geographical position and other variables, it is found that alliances formed between democratic and nondemocratic states last longer than other types of alliances. In other words, alliances between democratic and non-democratic states are more durable.

　　About the Authors: Wu Zelin is a MA Student in the Department of World Economics and Politics at Jiangsu Provincial Party School of CPC

　　Li Yujie is a MA Student in the Department of World Economics and Politics at Jiangsu Provincial Party School of CPC