Power Transition between the U.S. and China from an American Perspective: Research based on Twenty Years of Articles in Foreign Affair

　　Abstract:This article offers statistical analysis of nearly 20 years of relevant content from Foreign Affairs magazine.It finds that the mainstream view of American elites towards power transition between the U.S. and China is that current trends do not represent American decline, but China’s rise.The reality is that while America has an advantage with respect to military, education, science and technology, innovation and population structure, at the same time it faces a serious fiscal deficit, political stagnation and growing disparities between the rich and poor. For China’s part, its society is presently undergoing tremendous change, and while it faces a range of problems including lack of capacity to innovate, it is highly probable that China will maintain growth rates of 7% or greater for several decades to come. Even if its growth rates fall below this level, China’s future economic advantage is highly evident. In sum, conflict between China and the U.S. is by no means inevitable. 

　　About the Author:Yang Xiaming is a Professor in the Department of World Economics and Politics at Jiangsu Administration Institute