Probable Evolution of America’s Asia Pacific Strategy and Its Causes: A Long Term Analytical Perspective

　　Abstract:A review of the historical evolution of American policy towards Asiaand the Pacific yields the following findings: (1) since its independence, American policy towards Asia and the Pacific has cycled through periods of inward and outward focus, with a marked period of transition between each cycle.To present, America’s foreign policy towards Asia and the Pacific has passed through four complete periods of inward focus and three complete periods of outward focus, and is currently in the midst of a fourth period of outward focus. Shifts between periods characterized by inward and outward focus in America’s policy towards Asiaand the Pacific are driven by the state of American economic development, changes in public sentiment, partisan political differences and other domestic factors as well as changes in the geo-politics of Eurasia, the outcomes of overseas wars, and major changes within the states of East Asia. Because of its geo-political advantage and the unique nature of the Asia Pacific region, periods of outward focus in America’s Asia Pacific policy are clearly longer than periods of inward focus. Regardlessof how America pivots towards Asia and the Pacific or how it engages in strategic rebalancing, the fourth period of outward focus in American policy towards the region may end during the 2020s.This implies that for at least the coming 10 years, China must continue to bear significant strategic pressure from the U.S.

　　About the Author: Liu Jianhua is an Associate Professor in the Research Institute of International Issues of Zhongnan University of Economics and Law