Prospects for Afghan Political Stability and Development in the Post-War Period: A Perspective based on Afghan Governance Capacity

　　ABSTRACT: Following the collapse of the Taliban regime in 2001, Afghanistan began a process of institutional transition, developing the internal institutional structures of its government, market and society, and establishing institutional relationships between them. The new Afghan state has now governed for a period of more than 10 years, and while it has realized an improved political environment, increased the pace of economic development and made progress in restoring social order, it has yet to find a healthy path towards development for three reasons:(1)the limited political authority of the state; (2)the uneven development of the economy; and (3)chronic social unrest. By analyzing Afghan governing capacity, we can gain a better understanding of the successes that Afghanistan has achieved in the post-war period and the outstanding challenges that it faces, and assess its developmental prospects following the 2014 withdrawal of the American army.